Much like the preceding year, 2026 has begun with quite the bang. In contrast to the traditional post-holiday lull, this January has seen a sharp escalation of geopolitical tensions and increased volatility across a host of asset classes. Unsurprisingly, this has put precious metals right in the spotlight, with gold and silver both rising to new all-time highs after a slight period of sideways trading in Q4 2025. At current levels of $4,618 and $91.16, respectively, gold and silver are up 80% and 150% over the past year alone, and it doesn't look like the pace of gains is set to slow anytime soon.
Indeed, ongoing uncertainty in both the Middle East and Europe has now been added to by an escalation in tensions unprecedented in this century in the Americas following Trump's extrajudicial abduction of the sitting Venezuelan president, Nicolas Maduro, and threats of similar action against the rulers of Cuba and Colombia in case of any opposition from them. The macroeconomic situation in the US itself is also impacting precious metals prices, with sticky inflation and a wobbly jobs market also driving demand for haven assets. In this piece, we'll look at all these factors and more as we study what 2026 might have in store for gold and silver.
Trump on the warpath
The relationship between increased geopolitical uncertainty and commodity prices is well established. Indeed, gold and silver's uncharacteristically strong growth really began in Q3 2022 and intensified thereafter with every escalation in Europe and the Middle East. And despite Trump's peace president pledge, it looks as if 2026 is likely to be characterised by even greater geopolitical instability and conflict. Seemingly not satisfied with the kidnapping of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and unilateral seizure of 50 million barrels of oil, Trump has renewed previous threats to invade and subjugate Greenland and is seriously contemplating intervention in Iran amid the ongoing civil unrest there. This belligerent foreign policy pivot, which has been dubbed the 'Donroe Doctrine', has markets spooked and increases the demand for haven assets like gold. And Trump's ire hasn't been limited only to those countries directly. The US president has even threatened to slap a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. This naturally risks reigniting the trade war with China, which might well take the US's hemisphere-based strong-arming as an excuse to absorb Taiwan.
All of this is in addition to the ongoing conflicts in Europe and Israel, which still appear far from a resolution. As Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst, believes: "Should current geopolitical risks persist and US rate-cutting expectations remain intact, gold may attempt a more sustained breach of $4,600 in the coming weeks." In fact, Commerzbank has now raised its 2026 year-end gold forecast to $4,900, and many more optimistic gold bugs are predicting prices above $5,000. Even crypto investors are beginning to sit up and take notice, and the tokenised gold market is now worth over $4 billion, up from roughly $1 billion in January 2025. Major tokens include Tether's XAUT, Pax gold, and Matrixdock gold (XAUM-USD), and it's reasonable to suggest that these products will drive organic demand much like Bitcoin ETFs did for crypto when they were introduced in January 2024.
A mixed macroeconomic bag
Another key factor in the ascent of gold and silver over the past two years has undoubtedly been the sustained above-target inflation we've seen not only in the US, but in much of the world. However, after a protracted period of persistent price pressure, the December CPI data came in below expectations. The US Core Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% month over month and 2.6% year over year in the last month of 2025, falling short of analysts' expectations of 0.3% and 2.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index was up just 0.2% for the month, according to seasonally adjusted figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was below the Dow Jones consensus of a 0.3% gain, though still one-tenth of a percentage point higher than October. Naturally, Trump jumped on the good news to reiterate his demand for the Fed to cut interest rates "meaningfully", a move that would surely buoy precious metals. However, the macroeconomic picture is far from rosy, with the US job market weakening perceptibly in December, a month typically marked by seasonally driven optimism. The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index, or ETI, declined to 104.27 in December, from a downwardly revised 104.64 in November. At the same time, the proportion of consumers who report "jobs are hard to get" rose to 20.8%, a level unseen since early 2021.
For this reason, the Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its January 27-28 meeting, though investors currently anticipate two interest rate cuts this year. This could, of course, change following Trump's frequent intimidation tactics, which were brought to a new height this week when the White House served the regulator with DOJ subpoenas for alleged overreporting of expenses. In any case, the Fed's clearly more dovish stance is a strong factor for gold and silver and the global shift towards lower rates is bound to fuel more growth in 2026. It's also important to note that central banks, including the Fed, are still actively increasing their own gold reserves, which is providing sustained, high-volume demand that will continue to support higher prices.
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